Rarely do we see redistricting happen in the middle of a decade, yet this year proves to be a major exception. In Texas, Republicans seized the chance to draw new congressional lines—fueled by the White House’s encouragement—after fleeing state Democrats reluctantly returned to the Capitol. Meanwhile, in Pennsylvania, gubernatorial dynamics are heating up with the announcement that State Treasurer Stacy Garrity is taking on Governor Josh Shapiro in an upcoming race. Both developments promise serious implications for the 2026 midterms.

Let’s start with Texas. Republican lawmakers wanted new lines that would advantage their party. Democrats recognized they had no voting power to halt it, so many of them tried to play the only card they had: they left the state to break quorum. That tactic worked for a little while, blocking quick passage of Trump’s favored map. But ultimately the Democrats couldn’t remain on the run forever. Governor Greg Abbott and other Republican leaders turned up the heat, issuing civil arrest warrants and turning to the courts. Finally, most of the Democrats returned, effectively surrendering.

They were greeted with rules stating they couldn’t leave the House floor unless they signed forms pledging to stay and even be accompanied by officers. Drastic? Yes. But official steps were taken to ensure the redistricting vote went forward—something the White House and national GOP strategists had strongly advocated. Everyone knows Republicans are keen on keeping the House come 2026. By tweaking district lines, they can protect vulnerable seats and perhaps flip others.

Democrats call the new lines illegal, arguing they disempower minority voters. They’re promising lawsuits on grounds of Voting Rights Act violations. That strategy might drag things out, but many suspect the new map will remain in place for crucial elections. At the same time, across state lines, we see some moves by Democratic states like California aiming to produce their own mid-decade redraw, presumably to offset Texas’s changes. It’s an arms race of sorts, fueled by neither side wanting to hand the other a lasting advantage.

Now turn to Pennsylvania. A fresh confrontation is brewing. Governor Shapiro, an experienced Democrat with a robust campaign operation, is no pushover. He’s not publicly declared his re-election, but all signs point to him running. Republicans in the Keystone State see a chance to dethrone Shapiro with a popular figure: Stacy Garrity, the current state treasurer, who has a remarkable vote-getting record. She touts her alignment with President Trump’s policies, criticizing Shapiro’s approach to state governance as inefficient.

The big question is whether Ms. Garrity can unify the Republican Party. She may face competition from other figures like Doug Mastriano, a far-right phenomenon who performed poorly in a previous statewide race. Mastriano is believed to hold sway over a chunk of the party’s base. If he enters the race, the primary could turn into a bruising contest between more traditional conservatives and staunch populists. The outcome determines how effectively Republicans can challenge Shapiro, who’s proven he can win even in areas that once leaned Trump.

Why does all this matter for the nation at large? Because 2026 will be a pivotal election year, and the composition of state legislatures and governorships can heavily impact redistricting, voting laws, and momentum heading into the presidential election cycle. With President Trump already in office, retaining or increasing support in places like Texas and Pennsylvania could fortify the administration’s ability to enact further policies. If Republicans keep Texas’s newly reconfigured seats safe and seize the governor’s mansion in Pennsylvania, they’ll be well-positioned for the House.

On the flip side, if legal challenges to the Texas map succeed or if Shapiro fends off Garrity, it’ll be a warning shot to the GOP. That scenario might also suggest moderate voters are pushing back against the president’s boldest ambitions. For now, Republicans remain confident. They see the Texas fiasco as a short-term delay that ended in a victory, and Garrity’s candidacy as a rallying cry for conservative voters. With just over a year until the midterms, that confidence may soon be tested by an energized opposition. But at this moment, the momentum of redistricting and high-stakes races is fueling the party’s hopes for a 2026 triumph.